The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate for the stormy present and future.
As our circumstances are new, we must think anew, and act anew.
Abraham Lincoln

Virginia's public institutions of higher education, dating from the establishment of the College of William and Mary nearly 300 years ago, have historically been among the best in the country. Created and sustained as an assemblage of relatively independent and autonomous institutions, they have developed a diversity of missions that has historically well served the post-secondary educational needs of the Commonwealth.

More recently, Virginia has reasserted that leadership in the technology domain with a telecommunications infrastructure serving the diversity of educational missions that is, quite frankly, the envy of every other state in the Union. Initiatives in technology-based educational outreach in the Commonwealth date back to the earliest such efforts in the nation and at this time include some of the country's premier examples of effective institutional collaboration and innovative efforts to improve the quality of learning and to address the escalating cost of higher education.

The maturation of the set of digital technologies that underlie the personal computer and both wireline and wireless telecommunications brings with it the opportunity, in fact the necessity, to expand access to post-secondary educational opportunities for new sets of educational constituencies and to address some of the historic weaknesses of higher education in general—weaknesses that deal with issues of cost, quality and access.

Society's higher education requirements are undergoing a fundamental transformation brought about by changes taking place in what has been called the new knowledge economy. This new economy requires a workforce capable of handling an exploding knowledge base. Some experts have estimated that the shelf life of a technical degree today is less than five years. Although many of the critical skills required in the high-performance workplace have not changed, the pace of knowledge advancement requires constant updating of knowledge and skills. Education no longer ends at graduation. Viewing a college education as the mastery of a body of knowledge or a complete preparation for a lifetime career has become outmoded. Increasingly, students who already possess a degree are looking for learning opportunities that will improve job or career skills.

With these changes in business and industry, Americans today will work at several different jobs during their lifetimes, each job requiring new skills, new knowledge, and new attitudes and values. The education and training of the current labor force is the key to increasing productivity over the next two decades. The American Society for Training and Development estimates that more than 75 percent of the nation's workforce needs retraining. Consequently, adults will continuously enter and reenter post-secondary education.

Driven by the increasing requirements of the knowledge economy and by the income premium related to postsecondary education, the demand for four-year institutions is exceeding current capacities. According to the National Center for Educational Statistics, the earnings advantage of male college graduates over male high school graduates was 50 percent in 1997, compared with 19 percent in 1980. Today, approximately 70 percent of high school graduates go on to college, up from just 56 percent in 1980. The next decade will see college enrollments by 18-22 year-olds jump from 7.7 million to 10 million students.

In addition, the number of older and employed part-time students is growing because of the need to upgrade skills and knowledge. It is predicted that in the twenty-first century, each individual in the workforce will need to accumulate an additional 30 credit hours every seven years—a number of student equivalents considerably larger than today's college enrollment of over 15 million. Today, the traditional college-age group makes up a shrinking majority of the student population. "Traditional" undergraduates—those who are 18 to 22 years old, attend full-time, and live on campus—constitute less than one-fourth of all students in higher education. The New Majority is over 25, attends part-time, and lives off-campus. Many of these students work or have child-rearing responsibilities; they place a premium on time management and on balancing education with other demands. In addition, an even greater number of adults would like to pursue a college education but cannot because of inconvenient class hours, campus inaccessibility, family responsibilities, business travel, or physical disabilities. While remaining a suitable option for the minority of college students who match the traditional profile, residential education alone simply cannot serve the needs of today's working adult students.

The explosive growth of the Internet, signaling the convergence of computing and communications technologies, both drives and enables significant changes in the economy. Many observers have noted that the Internet is literally transforming all institutions and organizations in society, resulting in a societal change that is analogous to the transition from an agrarian world to an industrial one.

This technology is maturing at a time when the traditional educational model is cracking under the strain of new societal requirements. Meeting the needs of an increasingly heterogeneous student body requires greater flexibility in access and significant improvements in quality, all accomplished in a cost-effective, affordable manner. The Internet is ideally suited to meet these new learning needs. More important, emerging networking technologies do not just respond to new learning requirements—they also help to shape them.

Through the Internet, it is now possible to offer instruction to anyone, anytime, anywhere. Almost all colleges and universities are wiring their campuses for broadband, comprehensive access and are ensuring that each student has 24-hour access to a computer (typically a laptop) and the Internet. These technologies are extraordinarily cost-effective; virtually unlimited access to the Internet costs under $300 annually, about the equivalent of five textbooks. The plummeting costs of networked devices will make access even more affordable and widespread.

Massive amounts of intellectual resources are now available on the Web, and more resources are uploaded every day. Soon, entire digital libraries of both general and specialized knowledge will be available. Students will be able to access the best resources from around the world—high-quality, self-paced, customized, and world-class in content and pedagogy.

Digital learning applications are steadily improving. Search tools that enable complex and stored queries, as well as automated updates, are developing rapidly. Web-enabled presentation software is becoming easier to use while facilitating the communication of ideas and information in ever more powerful ways. Hybrid CD-ROMs provide the multimedia richness of CD-ROMs and the up-to-date capabilities of Web sites. Real-time audio and streaming video can now be delivered through standard 56 kbps telephone modems. Virtual-reality applications will offer additional enriching tools. Interactive databases, spreadsheets, and Java applications engage users with customized exercises, demonstrations, simulations, and tests.

Collaborative applications enable students to interact with each other and with teachers. Features include topic threading and real-time chat tools. Web-based audio and video conferencing are now stable applications. Faculty can make presentations using audio or video with synchronized HTML/presentation software, can demonstrate concepts using shared electronic whiteboards, and can test students, including using surprise pop-up quizzes, ask questions of individual students, and provide individual feedback. Students can move through live or archived materials according to their own schedule and convenience and can communicate with teachers, other instructional resources, or fellow students. Push technologies deliver software and local information (news, announcements, and other time-sensitive data) and also deliver instructional content. High-performance servers will enable large volumes of students to reliably access course material while also participating in live events.

As a consequence, the 1990s saw the extraordinary growth of distance education in higher education, particularly Internet-based courses at the collegiate level. These include both credit and non-credit courses, even full degree programs, and the numbers continue to rise. According to a report by International Data Corporation, in 2002 approximately 85 percent of two- and four-year colleges will offer distance education courses, up from 62 percent in 1998. For the same time period, student enrollments are projected to increase from just over 500,000 to well over two million students. All types of institutions are experiencing this extraordinary growth.

Institutions which focus on serving working adults are experiencing the greatest growth trajectories in the online market. The University of Phoenix, for example, increased its overall enrollment (both on and off line) from 68,000 to 84,000 students during the period from November 1999 to November 2000. Although the institution maintains 55 campuses and 98 learning centers in 18 states and abroad, it is best known for its rapidly growing distance education component. Phoenix Online, as it is called, has pursued an aggressive growth strategy. Its tracking stock, issued by its parent company, the Apollo Group, raised $70 million from Wall Street investors on the first day it was offered. Phoenix Online's enrollment increased 67 percent in the past year, from 11,100 to 18,500 students.

Colleges and universities which serve primarily a commuting student population are also experiencing phenomenal growth in online learning when they decide to make such opportunities available to their students. The University of Central Florida (UCF) in Orlando, a campus that is projected to grow from 25,000 to 40,000 students over the next decade, has moved from an initial online enrollment of 1,497 in 1997-98 to its current online enrollment of 11,270 in 2001. An additional 27,000 students at UCF are enrolled in courses that blend online study with face-to-face meetings during the current year.

Even the most traditional campuses are experiencing the same phenomenon. The SUNY Learning Network, a consortium of State University of New York campuses that offer online courses, started with eight courses in 1995-96. There were 34 courses offered in the 1996-97, 180 offered in 1997-98, 460 courses offered in 1998-99, 1000 courses offered in 1999-2000, and more than 1500 courses in 2000-01.

The message for everyone in higher education is, "When online courses are offered, students of all ages will come!"

We believe that all of Virginia's college and universities, like all institutions of higher education, need to develop the capacity to offer online instruction. They need to do it because, as one person we met with in Richmond put it, that's how colleges and universities will be doing a significant part of their business in the future. Online education offers Virginia an opportunity to build on the extraordinary strength of its existing higher education institutions and to realign them to meet twenty-first century needs. Our intention in this report is to make recommendations that position Virginia's institutions for the future and create the capacity for ongoing, expanded service to the citizens of the Commonwealth.